The impact of COVID-19 on a South African pediatric cardiac service: implications and insights into service capacity.

Background and Objectives: The Western Cape public pediatric cardiac service is under-resourced. COVID-19 regulations are likely to have long-term effects on patient care but may provide insight into service capacity requirements. As such, we aimed to quantify the impact of COVID-19 regulations on this service. Methods: An uncontrolled retrospective pre-post study of all presenting patients over two, one-year periods; the pre-COVID-19 period (01/03/2019-29/02/2020) and the peri-COVID-19 period (01/03/2020-28/02/2021). Results: Admissions decreased by 39% (624 to 378) and cardiac surgeries decreased by 29% (293 to 208) in the peri-COVID-19 period, with an increase in urgent cases (PR:5.99, 95%CI:3.58-10.02, p < 0.001). Age at surgery was lower in the peri-COVID-19 period, 7.2 (2.4-20.4) vs. 10.8 (4.8-49.2) months (p < 0.05), likewise, age at surgery for transposition of the great arteries (TGA) was lower peri-COVID-19, 15 (IQR:11.2-25.5) vs. 46 (IQR:11-62.5) days (p < 0.05). Length of stay 6 (IQR:2-14) vs. 3 days (IQR:1-9) (p < 0.001), complications (PR:1.21, 95%CI:1.01-1.43, p < 0.05), and age-adjusted delayed-sternal-closure rates (PR:3.20, 95%CI:1.09-9.33, p < 0.05) increased peri-COVID-19. Conclusion: Cardiac procedures were significantly reduced in the peri-COVID-19 period which will have implications on an overburdened service and ultimately, patient outcomes. COVID-19 restrictions on elective procedures freed capacity for urgent cases, demonstrated by the absolute increase in urgent cases and significant decrease in age at TGA-surgery. This facilitated intervention at the point of physiological need, albeit at the expense of elective procedures, and also revealed insights into capacity requirements of the Western Cape. These data emphasize the need for an informed strategy to increase capacity and reduce backlog whilst ensuring minimal morbidity and mortality.Graphical Abstract.

Teleophthalmology-enabled and artificial intelligence-ready referral pathway for community optometry referrals of retinal disease (HERMES): a Cluster Randomised Superiority Trial with a linked Diagnostic Accuracy Study-HERMES study report 1-study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of demand in eye care services in the UK. With a large proportion of patients referred to Hospital Eye Services (HES) for diagnostics and disease management, the referral process results in unnecessary referrals from erroneous diagnoses and delays in access to appropriate treatment. A potential solution is a teleophthalmology digital referral pathway linking community optometry and HES. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The HERMES study (Teleophthalmology-enabled and artificial intelligence-ready referral pathway for community optometry referrals of retinal disease: a cluster randomised superiority trial with a linked diagnostic accuracy study) is a cluster randomised clinical trial for evaluating the effectiveness of a teleophthalmology referral pathway between community optometry and HES for retinal diseases. Nested within HERMES is a diagnostic accuracy study, which assesses the accuracy of an artificial intelligence (AI) decision support system (DSS) for automated diagnosis and referral recommendation. A postimplementation, observational substudy, a within-trial economic evaluation and discrete choice experiment will assess the feasibility of implementation of both digital technologies within a real-life setting. Patients with a suspicion of retinal disease, undergoing eye examination and optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans, will be recruited across 24 optometry practices in the UK. Optometry practices will be randomised to standard care or teleophthalmology. The primary outcome is the proportion of false-positive referrals (unnecessary HES visits) in the current referral pathway compared with the teleophthalmology referral pathway. OCT scans will be interpreted by the AI DSS, which provides a diagnosis and referral decision and the primary outcome for the AI diagnostic study is diagnostic accuracy of the referral decision made by the Moorfields-DeepMind AI system. Secondary outcomes relate to inappropriate referral rate, cost-effectiveness analyses and human-computer interaction (HCI) analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the London-Bromley Research Ethics Committee (REC 20/LO/1299). Findings will be reported through academic journals in ophthalmology, health services research and HCI. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN18106677 (protocol V.1.1).

FENETRE study: quality-assured follow-up of quiescent neovascular age-related macular degeneration by non-medical practitioners: study protocol and statistical analysis plan for a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Management of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) places a high demand on already constrained hospital-based eye services. This study aims to assess the safety and quality of follow-up within the community led by suitably trained non-medical practitioners for the management of quiescent neovascular AMD (QnAMD). METHODS/DESIGN: This is a prospective, multisite, randomised clinical trial. 742 participants with QnAMD will be recruited and randomised to either continue hospital-based secondary care or to receive follow-up within a community setting. Participants in both groups will be monitored for disease reactivation over the course of 12 months and referred for treatment as necessary. Outcomes measures will assess the non-inferiority of primary care follow-up accounting for accuracy of the identification of disease reactivation, patient loss to follow-up and accrued costs and the budget impact to the National Health Service. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Research ethics approval was obtained from the London Bloomsbury Ethics Committee. The results of this study will be disseminated through academic peer-reviewed publications, conferences and collaborations with eye charities to insure the findings reach the appropriate patient populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03893474.